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IBM's 5 predictions for the future
IBM 對未來的五個預言
Heather Kelly, CNN By Heather Kelly, CNN

December 19, 2013 -- Updated 1958 GMT (0358 HKT) | Filed under: Innovations

Every year, IBM offers five predictions of innovations the company expects in the near future.
每年，IBM公司對未來提供五個創新的預言

STORY HIGHLIGHTS
焦點觀察

Governments and companies will collect personal data to improve services and schools
政府和公司將會收集個人資料以用來改善服務和校園

IBM released a list of five innovations it thinks will take off in the next five years
IBM宣布了一份清單，裡頭包含了未來五年即將成真的五個創新。

Smart schools that learn about students and cities that learn about citizens will emerge
了解學生的智慧校園和了解市民的城市將會產生

(CNN) -- Kids are shuffled through numerous teachers, classrooms and schools during their educational career. Some will rack up a thick file of issues, while others will leave no mark, positive or negative, at all.
小孩在求學的過程中穿梭在許多的老師、教室和學校中。有些小孩會造成非常多的問題，而其他的小孩將會沒有好壞的度過。

Often in the current system, learning disabilities are not always caught, special talents overlooked, and students fall between the cracks.
在目前的系統裡，學習障礙並不會被關注到，特殊才能被忽略，造成學生的沉淪。

But in the future, schools could use tracking software and analytics tools to improve education. They will gather information about how a student performs and learns, discovering patterns, problems and promise that would otherwise get lost from year-to-year, if they're noticed at all.
Information gathered about each student could become part of a larger data set used to learn what lessons and methods are working or failing across an entire school system.
但在未來，學校能使用追蹤軟體和分析工具用以改進教育。他們將整合資訊:學生的執行狀況和學習狀況，找尋特定行為，問題和保證這些情況會逐年減少，只要他們可以完全看到實況。整合每個學生的資訊可以變成一筆龐大的資料集，根據學校的整合系統將能研判學習課程和方法是否有成效。

Smart classrooms that learn about students are just one of the major technological advancements IBM thinks we'll see in the near future. IBM has been predicting futuristic trends since 2005, releasing annual year-end lists of five technologies that it thinks will come to fruition in the next half decade.
智慧教室可以適應學生是一大重要的科技進展。IBM認為我們將在不久的將來看到。從2005起IBM開始預測未來的潮流。宣布每年末的五個科技清單將會在未來的五年中實現。

This year, most of the predictions are optimistic takes on what can be accomplished when the medical industry, governments, schools and computer systems gather and analyze unprecedented amounts of data about people, from their behavior and patterns as groups over time all the way down to a single person's DNA.
今年，大多數的預測都樂觀的看待醫藥工業能夠完成些甚麼，政府、學校和電腦系統蒐集和分析史無前例巨大的個人資料，無時無刻的從他們的行為和特徵分門別類並對應到每個人的DNA上。

A school that learns about its students to provide a more effective education. A city that improves public services based on citizens behaviors, schedules and movements. A digital assistant that monitors your health or improves your online security. Customized medical treatments based on an individual's DNA. And a return to local, in-person shopping by bringing customizing technology into brick and mortar stores.
學校學習他的學生以提供更有效率的教育。城市能基於市民的行為、行程和移動來改進公共服務。數位助理能夠監控你的健康或是改善你的網路隱私。能夠基於個人的DNA進行客制化的醫療。回到本地，個人購物的行為能夠在實體店面裡獲得反映。

"it is important that people stop and take a little bit of time to look at the stuff that's going to move the needle for society," said Bernie Meyerson, IBM's vice president of innovation, who heads up the project, called 5 in 5.
"人們停下腳步和花點時間去考慮一下是很重要的，將會讓社會更進步"。said Bernie Meyerson，IBM的創新副總裁負責這個稱做5 in 5的計畫。

Meyerson, who has been at IBM for 34 years, starts by looking at common ideas and unifying themes across various industries to identify common threads. In the eight years the company has been doing the project, Meyerson predicts it has had a hit rate of around 50 percent.
Meyerson已經在IBM34個年頭，一開始只看一般的創意和統一的主題精油不同的工業去辨識出一般的思緒。在這八年裡，這公司已經開始這項計畫，Meyerson預測這個計畫有50%的命中率。

Many of the past predictions had a positive social angle, like a new chemical formula that could make it easier to dispose of plastic, or making recycling a profitable venture for cities. Some are continuing to take off, like the emergence of telemedicine. Others, like computers that can smell, might never make it to the mainstream.
許多過去的預測有正面的社會角度，像是一個新的化學方程式能夠更簡單的分解塑膠，或是對於城市來說讓回收能夠成為一個有利潤的企業。有些仍持續再起飛，例如遠程緊急醫療。其他像是電腦能夠更小，這些就不太可能成為主流話題。
1. Can smarter schools make smarter kids?
1. 智慧校園能夠培育出更有智慧的小孩嗎?
This year, Meyerson is most excited about the classrooms of the future. IBM is already testing out big data in schools with a program in a Georgia public school district serving 170,000 students. The project aims to improve graduation rates by tracking everything a student does -- including attendance, test scores, how they interact with electronic content, and what they are being taught in the classroom -- and suggesting improvements to tailor their educations.
"The education system works for you, it actually learns about you as time goes. I think that's a tremendous plus," said Meyerson.
今年，Meyerson最看好未來教室的發展。IBM已經嘗試使用程式取得大量的校園資料用來服務 Georgia公共校區。這個計畫目標在改進畢業率，追蹤學生的大小事，包括出勤，考試成績，與電子內容的互動，和它們在課堂學到甚麼東西，用來提出量身訂製的教學改善建議。這套教育系統為您服務，他會隨時時間學習你的一切。我想這會有著強大的附加價值。Meyerson說。
2. Self-correcting cities
2. 自我修正的城市
Cities are also in a unique position to gather data about people's daily lives. They can use technology to learn more about the behaviors and needs of large numbers of people densely packed into small geographic areas. For example, a city could determine the volume of people waiting on a train platform at any given time and instantly make small adjustments to the train schedules to ease congestion and delays.
城市剛好也在一個獨特的位置可以匯集人們每天的生活資料。他們可以使用科技去學習人們的行為和需求，用圖形化的方式表達每個區域的不同性。舉例來說
Mobile devices could increase participation in local government, with people reporting issues, communicating with politicians and make their voices heard far more effectively online than if they were in town hall meetings. Online petition sites such as Change.org and digital bullhorns like Twitter are already having an impact on local politics.
移動裝置能讓人們更積極參與當地的政府，當人們報告問題，和政治人物溝通，網路上的意見將會比在市議會中開會更有效的被了解。線上的請願網站，例如Change.org 或是 "數位揚聲器"，像Twitter已經對當地的政策有所影響。
3. It sees you when you're sleeping, it knows when you're awake
3.當你睡著時它會看著你，當你醒著時它會了解你
On the personal level, IBM thinks "digital guardians" will emerge in the next five years. A program can learn everything about your online habits to confirm your identity and better detect when something is amiss. If you suddenly start uploading large volume of personal and financial data to a server in Eastern Europe, it might deduce that you have been hacked.

The same technique can be used offline, using data collected from sensors in smartphones and wearable technology to monitor you physical activity and health. The accelerometer in your smartphone can detect a loss in motor control and set off an alarm to summon medical help.
"It literally creates an image of you. It knows who you are and what you do and how you behave," said Meyerson.
4. Medical treatment tailored to your DNA
Doctors take your vitals, flip though a manila envelope filled with a paper history of your previous visits and run tests to decide on the best treatment.
IBM predicts that in the future, computers will be able to see exactly how a treatment will affect an individual based on detailed medical records that include detailed information, including DNA. People have different reactions to drugs and treatments, and this would cut down on the amount of time spent figuring out the best course through trial and error.
The company is already working with health care partners on systems that will learn about patients over time and, eventually, take this type of health care to the cloud so doctors anywhere could benefit from the data.
5. Local shopping stages a comeback
No matter how fast and free Amazon Prime shipping is, physical store still have a place in our lives. They might even see a resurgence in the future by adopting some of the technology their online siblings have fine tuned.
"There's a certain category of product, and it is nontrivial, where there's a lot of resistance to doing something online without first getting your hands on it," said Meyerson.
The futuristic experience starts with opting in and sharing more information about yourself, like your buying patterns over time. Walk in to your local store and it will know exactly what you're looking for -- what products you usually buy at a certain time of year or the week, favorite brands, allergies, that you love cheddar but would never touch American cheese. The store employees could make recommendations based on your past interests.
The future is already here
Whether you think the ideas are creepy or brilliant, they are already on the way. These innovations are not just far-off fantasies, they're already starting to be developed and used in the real world, though still in early stages.
The issues associated with governments, doctors and companies collecting increasing amounts of person data are also already in the spotlight. In the past year, there has been an uptick in awareness about what personal information is being collected about us and how it can be used by corporations hoping to make more money and by law enforcement.
IBM's predictions focus on the other side of bulk data collection: more efficient systems tailored to keep people safe and healthy, encourage civic engagement and improve public services, help kids perform better in school, and support local businesses.